While recent data shows property listings are soaring in regional towns and cities, percentage figures don't paint an accurate picture of the market, warns CEO of REINT, Quentin Kilian.
Australian property listings have risen over the past year, reflecting an increased supply in Sydney and Melbourne, the nation’s largest housing markets.
In all other capital city markets aside from Canberra, total listings have fallen over the past 12 months.
Reflecting those supply shifts, prices have been falling in the southeastern mainland capitals, but rising in some smaller markets.
These next two tables look at the annual change in property listings in more granular detail.
The first shows the top five suburbs in every Australian state and territory where the number of listings have risen over the past year. The list includes only those suburbs that have had more than 50 property listings in both periods.
Source: CoreLogic
In all of the states except for New South Wales, regional towns and cities dominate, accounting for 25 of the 40 suburbs on the list.
Cameron Kusher, research analyst at CoreLogic, says the prevalence of mining centres suggests vendors may be more willing to sell as conditions level out or that more distressed assets are hitting the market.
But while the upswing in property listings for Katherine seem particularly high at 97.8 per cent, CEO of REINT, Quentin Kilian, told WILLIAMS MEDIA that because the town is so small, an extra two or three properties listed can dramatically swing the result.
"We often see dramatic movements in sales and rental volumes because it is such a small town. When you're dealing with a population of 10,000 people, there will be tendency to see sizeable swings. You have to bear that in mind," he said.
"Just recently, one suburb in the Northern Territory saw a 68 per cent swing in sales volumes, which seems quite a lot, but that actually meant there were two extra houses sold in that quarter.
"These percentage figures don't always paint the most accurate picture of what the housing market really is, particularly in regional towns when you're dealing with very small populations. An extra two or three properties sold or listed can dramatically swing the percentage figures up or down, so while the figures make it seem like a lot of real estate is being sold, the reality is there was actually only a handful of properties sold," he said.
President of REINSW, Leanne Pilkington, agrees.
"The numbers can be misrepresnted in regards to what actually happening, so you've always got to be careful of the volume in these regional towns, he's quite right," she told WILLIAMS MEDIA.
Agent at Abel Mcgrath, Simon McGrath, told WILLIAMS MEDIA that if you want to get an accurate depiction of where the market is hot in regional towns, you need to look at the statistics for houses for rent.
"If there's a surge in houses listed for rent, that will tell you where people are moving to," he said.
Underlining just how hot the Tasmanian property market has been over the past 12 months, only one suburb — Moonah — saw listings increase over the year.
The next table looks at the other end of the spectrum, showing the top five suburbs in every Australian state and territory where listings have fallen the fastest over the past year.
Source: CoreLogic
25 of the 40 are located in cities, with the remaining in regional areas.
Looking forward, and from a broader perspective, Kusher says recent trends in both listings and prices are likely to be maintained for some time to come.
“As the housing market is slowing, the number of properties for sale is climbing in Sydney and Melbourne, providing for less urgency among buyers to negotiate,” he says.
“As stock levels rise, buyers become more empowered and vendors may need to rethink their pricing expectations and marketing strategies.”
In other markets, Kusher says “stock levels are tightening”, adding that he expects those trends will continue.
If that does play out, the divergence between price movements in Sydney and Melbourne compared to other parts of the country could well get larger in the period ahead
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