Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Guy Debelle has identified positive change within Australia's housing market as a potential offset for future risks to the country's economy.
The easing downturn of Australia's housing market could be a key factor in supporting household growth going forward, the Reserve Bank of Australia says.
In a keynote speech at the 14th Annual Risk Australia Conference conference on Thursday, RBA deputy Governor Guy Debelle outlined the future risks for Australia's economy, including the US-China trade war and the threat posed by Climate Change.
When it came to the domestic economy, Dr Debelle said low-income growth and an increase in household tax payments had compounded the effects of falling house prices throughout the past few years.
"Overlaid on the slow growth in household income has been the effect of the decline in housing prices," he said.
"Some part of that effect comes through a wealth effect: as housing prices fall, homeowners' wealth declines, which reduces their spending.
"Some part of the effect comes through the lower housing turnover that has accompanied the decline in housing prices."
While Dr Debelle said it was difficult to know how much of an impact lower interest rates or tax cuts would have going forward, he said a possible end to the housing downturn made for "evenly balanced risks to the outlook.
"There is evidence that the decline in housing prices has reached its end," he said.
"If this is the case, the drag from declining wealth and turnover will dissipate. Housing market conditions may even start to support consumption growth again in the period ahead.
"Looking at the domestic outlook more broadly, we are expecting the GDP growth outcomes to strengthen after a run of disappointing numbers.
"This outlook is supported by a number of developments, including lower interest rates, the recent tax cuts, a depreciation of the Australian dollar, a brighter outlook for investment in the resources sector, some stabilisation of the housing market and ongoing high levels of investment in infrastructure."
Click here to view Dr Debelle's full keynote address.
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