2016 is the Year of the Monkey. According to Chinese Five Elements the Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger. Therefore, we will deal with more financial events in the year of the Monkey.

Monkey is a smart, naughty, wily and vigilant animal, so if you want to have good return for your financial investment, then you need to outsmart the Monkey.

Metal is also connected to the Wind. That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly.

Looking back at 2015, which by all accounts in the world of real estate could best be described as lacklustre, a year of change could be a very good thing. The biggest standout for 2015 was the upward trend in vacancy rates across the Greater Darwin Area, which is the result of a combination of an oversupply into the marketplace of new properties and the more worrying trend of a decline in population.

The Northern Territory Government population projections, published in 2013 projected a population growth of 1.4 to 1.5 percent for 2015. However, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in September 2015, noted that the Northern Territory fared the worst of any of the States and Territories in 2015 with population growth of only 0.2 per cent – it’s lowest in 11 years. According to the ABS, net interstate migration losses were the greatest contributor to slower growth, with the Territory recording its largest ever interstate migration loss in the year to March 2015.

The past year saw a fall of just over 29 per cent in house volumes across the Greater Darwin area (which includes Palmerston) but a massive drop in the volume of Unit/ Townhouse sales by some 62 per cent. Vacancy rates have continued to increase in most areas the Darwin/ Northern Suburbs area reaching an 8.2 per cent vacancy rate on houses and a 9.2 per cent vacancy rate on units. And while much of this can be attributed to the additional supply that came into the Darwin market in late 2014 and 2015, there is also that real issue of a declining population which is simply increasing the effect of the growing vacancy rates.

So what were some of the ‘bright points’ for the December 2015 Quarter in the Darwin market?

Well to begin with, Palmerston saw a fall in its unit vacancy rate by a sizeable 3.1 per cent. This correlates with the anecdotal evidence we have been gathering that a sizeable number of renters have chosen to relocate to Palmerston in search of newer properties and lower rents.

And the Rural area was quite a winner on the vacancy rate front as well, showing a drop of 5.9 per cent in houses and 7.3 per cent in units. Again we believe the rural area is attracting renters from the city. Sales wise, whilst the volume of house sales fell again in the December Quarter – down 7.7 per cent – the median price actually grew to $608,750. This is reflective of the sales activity in the higher brackets with 112 of the 216 recorded sales being above the $600,000 mark and a further 81 of those sales being above $500,000. Unit sales bounced back in the December Quarter, up by 37.6 per cent. However this is still significantly lower than at the same time last year. The median unit price was reasonably steady, down just 1 per cent on this time last year at $490,000. The jump in unit sales would indicate people are recognising the changes to the market and seeing this time as a good buying opportunity.

The positive and negative qualities of the Monkey Year 2016 culminate in a year in which anything can happen. Let’s hope for a year of positive change ahead.

Read more:

Living the high life in Darwin

Darwin property market outlook

Political season fails to dampen north Darwin property markets