New Zealand's housing market has found a welcome equilibrium following the recent cuts in interest rates. After a period of volatility, the national median house price has settled within a consistent band of $750,000-$801,000 for the last two years, currently sitting at $790,000.

Besides stable prices, buyers across the country now benefit from increased housing options, with available listings rising 10.9 per cent to 36,870 properties nationwide. This improved stock level gives prospective homeowners more choices and negotiating power than they've had in years, creating opportunities for first-time buyers who previously struggled to enter the market during periods of limited inventory.

The national trend showing a slight 1.4 per cent year-on-year decrease masks significant regional variations, with several areas experiencing robust growth. The West Coast Region leads with an impressive 11.5 per cent price increase, demonstrating strong demand in the most affordable region of the country. Other regions showing healthy price appreciation include Southland (5.6 per cent), Tasman (4.2 per cent), and Gisborne (4.0 per cent), indicating that areas offering lifestyle benefits at more accessible price points are attracting buyer interest.

While major metropolitan centers have experienced some correction, with Wellington City (-6.2 per cent) and Auckland City (-6.0 per cent) recording the largest declines, this rebalancing is creating more affordable entry points in previously overheated markets. Meanwhile, three regions have maintained stable prices: Canterbury, Taranaki, and Marlborough.

Despite these positive developments, significant challenges remain on the horizon. The housing market's current balance appears increasingly vulnerable when considered alongside changing population dynamics. For the year ended February 2025, annual net migration showed a gain of just 32,922 people – dramatically lower than the 113,736 recorded in the year ended February 2024, and well below the peak of 135,500 in October 2023. The significant slowdown in population growth paired with increasing housing supply could potentially undermine the current equilibrium if the trend continues.

The looming impact of U.S. tariffs adds another layer of uncertainty. With the United States serving as New Zealand's second-largest export market, this external pressure comes at a particularly vulnerable time. Lower population growth and potential economic contraction triggered by international trade disputes may test the market's resilience in the coming months.