"Current demand for property, auction clearance rates and market depth do not indicate a major market correction is on the horizon."
An investment bank's claim that Australia’s property prices will fall dramatically from March next year have been met with criticism from other economists and the real estate industry. On Monday, Macquarie Bank released forecasts for a 7.5 percent drop in property prices nationwide from March 2016. However, AMP Capital expects further price growth in 2016 before a 5-10 percent downturn in 2017. Stockland CEO Mark Steinert says a number of factors support the case for further growth in house prices, including the lower Australian dollar, a relatively strong domestic economy and continued population growth. He anticipates that house prices will rise by 3-5 percent in 2016. HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham also predicts that Sydney and Melbourne will continue to grow in 2016. "Prices will continue to rise in Australia, supported by continued low interest rates and the fact there is still an [overall] under-supply of housing to be worked off, particularly in NSW,” said Bloxham. Demand in Sydney was strong and while HSBC predict “considerably slower growth” over 2016, there will still be an increase not a decline. "Current demand for property, auction clearance rates and market depth do not indicate a major market correction is on the horizon,” said Angus Raine, Executive Chairman, Raine & Horne. Raine believes the odds of an official interest rate cut are shortening given the state of the economies in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, and this could underpin real estate market activity nationally. “There are mining communities hurting in Queensland and Western Australia, while the loss of car manufacturing and oil and gas industry jobs won’t help the situation in South Australia,” said Raine. "If we didn’t have the housing boom in NSW and Victoria, it’s a fair bet that Australia’s largest provincial economies would be struggling too," he said. "With these economic issues in mind, another interest rate cut by the RBA in the first quarter of 2016 is a possibility, and would give the real estate cycles around the country longer tails that will extend well into next year.”