Sydney’s property market is clearly cooling and Melbourne’s is expected to be not too far behind however, a leading property market analyst forecasts that a bigger property boom is about to unfold elsewhere.

According to national property market research firm Propertyology, Hobart has the potential for price growth to push past 20 per cent over the next year - well above the best years produced by both Sydney and Melbourne during their boom.

“Hobart’s growth cycle today is comparable to where Sydney was in 2014. All of the metrics which we analyse suggest that, all things being equal, the 15 per cent price growth over the last 12 months will be surpassed next year and that there’s currently no end in sight,” said Propertyology Head of Market Research, Simon Pressley.

Sydney and Melbourne are now in to their fifth strong year whereas Hobart’s growth cycle didn’t commence until 2016. Both Domain and Core Logic have recently confirmed that Hobart’s change in median house price over the last 12 months is officially higher than every other capital city.

“Hobart has an enormous head of steam. The number of properties listed for sale now is less than half what was available a few years ago. Our buyer’s agents have missed out on numerous properties to people who have been prepared to pay up to 10 per cent more than us. It’s like a flock of seagulls fighting over a chip,” Pressley said.

Of the seven city councils which make up Greater-Hobart, Clarence, Glenorchy, Hobart City, and Kingborough are the tightest markets.

Affordability and the significant improvement in Tasmania’s economy are driving housing demand while supply is incredibly tight.

“Most Australians don’t realise that Hobart’s increase in job volumes over the last 12 months is 4 times the national average and more than double that of the next best capital city. Tasmania is building an international reputation for world-class agriculture, unique tourism experiences, and advanced manufacturing. Hobart is also a university city. The economy is firing up,” Pressley said. 

After correctly anticipating the resurgence of Tasmania’s economy, Propertyology commenced actively investing in Hobart property in 2014. “The transformation has already been remarkable and we feel that few people appreciate that even more exciting times are ahead. The pipeline of infrastructure and major job-creating projects is diverse and extensive,” Pressley says.

Big international brands like Hyatt, Marriott, Fragrance Group and others are expected to commence work on several new luxury hotels over the next year or two. There are plans to extend the Hobart airport runway to accommodate direct flights from Asia, which has already produced record volumes of visitors from business delegates and tourists to Tasmania.

The state’s biggest tourist attraction, Museum of Old and New Art (MONA), has plans for jaw-dropping expansions that include a luxury hotel wing that hangs over the Derwent River and a high-roller casino.

Submissions have been sought for a multi-billion dollar proposal to redevelopment waterfront land in Hobart’s heart, Macquarie Point, in to an iconic cultural precinct that will draw people from all over the world for a truly unique experience.

Other major job ceating projects include a $700 million upgrade of the state’s biggest hospital, a new university, and a $400 million technology hub in the CBD with facilities for up to 3,000 students.

Greater-Hobart’s population growth rate of 0.9 per cent in 2016 was higher than New South Wales’ Central Coast and Adelaide.

“Housing demand in Australia’s most affordable capital city is largely driven by local confidence from the rapid job improvement. Now that the capital growth is there for all to see, mainland investors are appreciating that Australia’s highest rental yields mean that the cost to hold a property in Hobart is effectively nothing,” Pressley said.

Hobart’s vacancy rate of 0.4 per cent is potentially the lowest on record for any capital city. Mr Pressley believes that rental pressure will intensifying even further. Whereas big cities like Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane are now seeing record volumes of new supply hitting the market, Propertyology refers to the low building approval volumes in Hobart.

With a median house price that is approximately one third of Sydney’s, Hobart is a considerably less risky bricks-and-mortar proposition.

“Hobart is the only location in Australia which has the combination of an affordable entry price, an economy which is already strong (and still improving), hardly any impact on investor’s annual cash flow, and a tight supply pipeline for as far as the eye can see,” Pressley said.

“The 15 per cent headline capital growth rate over the last 12 months is dragged down by the lower rates of growth in Hobart’s urban fringe. With rates of supply tighter than anything we’ve seen, it’s quite conceivable that property prices in metropolitan Hobart could exceed 20 per cent next year and beyond,” Pressley said.

Hobart market fundamentals

• Most affordable capital city in Australia
• 35 per cent price growth already occurred in metro-Hobart across 3-years ending June 2017
• Highest rental yields of all capital cities
• 0.4 per cent vacancy rate is 4x tighter than Sydney and Melbourne (potentially the lowest ever for any capital city)
• Building approval trends are lower than mainland capital cities, suggesting the supply pipeline will remian extremely tight for some years yet
• The rate of improvement in Hobart’s unemployment rate is far superior to every other capital city
• Employment volume growth is 4x the national average (twice as good as next best capital city)
• Job advertisements are at an all-time high
• Tasmania’s growth in international visitors and visitor spending is Australia’s highest
• Population trend has rebounded strongly
• Significant pipeline of job-creating major projects
• Growing interntional reputation for premium produce, unique tourism experiences, and advanced manufacturing

Read more about Tasmania's real estate market:

Tasmanian market going from strength to strength: REIT quarterly report

Hobart property market has "changed forever": Jim Playsted, Knight Frank

Tasmanian real estate boom spreads island-wide