There is a widely held belief in Britain that Conservative governments are good for property prices, but this view is completely incorrect.
Well, a hugely uninspiring election campaign didn’t lead to a majority for either main party. The Conservatives will be the largest party and will likely form a government with the backing of the 10 Democratic Unionist Party MPs.
There will be some short-term jitters and uncertainty, but in the medium and long-term it is far less important in terms of house prices than the press and politicians themselves would care to admit. Of course, if you are negotiating on a property, you should use the uncertainty to your advantage as some sellers will make mistakes based on a false assumption:
There is a wide held belief that politics has a major effect on house prices. The consensus is that a Conservative government is good while a Labour government or hung parliament is bad. As I have pointed out on several occasions, this is actually completely incorrect.
Would you like proof? Well here are some statistics which show house price movement from 1970-2014 under the various governments:
1970 –74 Edward Heath – Conservative
1974 –76 Harold Wilson – Labour
1976 –79 James Callaghan – Labour
1979 –1990 Margaret Thatcher – Conservative
1990 –1997 John Major - Conservative
1997 –2007 Tony Blair – Labour
2007 –10 Gordon Brown - Labour
2010 –14 David Cameron – Conservative (Coalition with Lib Dems)
Source: Thisismoney.co.uk
Now it must be noted that these figures are for the UK rather than just London, so the figures are particularly harsh on John Major and David Cameron - although the figures would also have been better for all the other Prime Ministers as London usually outperforms the rest of the country over the medium and long term. (Cameron was obviously PM for longer but the stats are only up to 2014).
There was also significant inflation during the seventies.
Nevertheless, the trend was up throughout this period as it has been for centuries – irrespective of whether there has been a Conservative or Labour Government, a coalition or, going back further, a King or Queen on the throne.
Of course, this period also included three severe financial shocks and property crashes in the early 1970’s, 1990’s and 2008. And this is the key point, huge property price rises followed by crashes are an integral part of our economic system which enforce boom and bust. They have nothing to do with politics.
Gordon Brown proudly announced on several occasions that he had “eradicated” the cycle of boom and bust. Obviously, he didn’t and there is a very good book entitled “Gordon is a Moron”, which I urge you to read. Indeed, prices soared under Tony Blair’s Labour government.
More recently, the Conservative victory in the 2014 General Election was hailed as a great thing for property and yet, prices in prime central London have fallen since then; once again disproving the widely held belief that one or other party is good or bad for property.
In this case the falls were due to the savage rises in Stamp Duty. Admittedly a political decision but one that was unexpected from a Conservative government and which has to be understood in the context of the property and economic cycles.
So, elections don’t shape property markets.
Read more from Jeremy McGivern:
Brexit – The Illusion of Democracy
London property prices to crash 25% while politicians flee the UK